2026-27 NBA projections
Win totals for all 30 teams, the top 50 players, and four tools: player and team ratings, a season tracker, a matchup checker and a lineup builder. Rosters as of October 12 (before the October 19-20 roster cutdowns), market lines from BetMGM on October 10, with a small adjustment for preseason results through October 12.
New here? A player's Rating is how many points per 100 possessions he adds to a lineup of average teammates; 0 is about an average player. Team win totals are built up from those player ratings. Use Player ratings to search players, Matchup checker for a single game, Lineup builder to test five players together, and Season tracker to see how our predictions do once games start.
Win projections
Our projected 2026-27 win total for each team. The filled dot is our projection and the ring is the sportsbook line.
Top players
Our 2026-27 rating for each player: the points per 100 possessions he adds to a lineup of average teammates. The full list, with offense and defense, roles and projected minutes, is on the ratings page.
| Player | 2026-27 team | Rating |
|---|
Tools
How much to trust this
Win totals
In past seasons a typical team finished within about four wins of its projection. Injuries and trades can move any team much further.
Single games
Not a betting edge. Sportsbook lines were better at picking single-game winners because they know about injuries and rest, so treat our game numbers as context.
Player ratings
Ratings describe how players have performed and what we expect from them. They work best for stars and regulars. Players with little recent playing time, rookies and players returning from long injuries are less certain.
Not modeled: injuries after the October 12 list, anything after October 12, and in-season changes to minutes. Rookies are rated from their college performance and draft position, so they are the least certain ratings of all.